By Ethan Latimer

How the imminent overturn of Roe vs. Wade will trigger abortion bans across many states, affecting women's health and women’s rights

Abortion is one of the most controversial and yet well known subjects in America. Roe v. Wade, 410 U.S. 113 was passed by the United States Supreme Court in 1973 which ruled in favor of a pregnant woman’s rights to have an abortion without excessive restrictions by the state, confirming that denying abortion rights was unconstitutional. As of the time of publication, that legislation protects the individual rights of over 170 million women.

On May 2nd, a now-confirmed draft was leaked to Politico, suggesting that Justice Samuel Alito plans on overturning the nearly 50-year-old case. It is important to note that while overturning Roe vs. Wade will not immediately ban abortion nationwide, it does give each state the opportunity to criminalize abortion as they see fit, up to a complete ban.

On the morning of May 3rd, Chief Justice John Roberts publicly confirmed that the leaks were valid, and there would be a full investigation. Senator Mitch McConnell made a statement that the individual responsible for the leak should be prosecuted with criminal charges, according to an ongoing investigation by the NY Times.

Since Roe was passed, deaths of pregnant women aged 15-44 in relation to abortion went from 47 in 1973 down to two in 2021 according to a report from Statista last November. Roe was instrumental in allowing for safe and legal abortions in most states. Nearly 50 years later, the CDC has reported 629,898 legal abortions in 2019, something that would be unlikely without Roe.

If the legislation is undone, states would be free to ban abortion all together. This introduces a multitude of issues, specifically that abortions would still continue to occur while abortion-related deaths could see an increase due to lack of legal rights with a licensed physicians in affected states.

Conservative states like Missouri are prepared for a chance to criminalize all abortions. In 2019, the NY Times, reported that Missouri’s Governor Mike Parson signed a ban bill “that made no exceptions for cases of rape or incest,” which was immediately blocked by the federal court. They believed it violated Roe. However, if the 1973 case is to be overturned, that bill would immediately be signed into effect, thus allowing for more oppressive legislation to be enacted. This immediate enactment is called a "trigger law."

Several states already have these “trigger laws" in place, meaning that if and when Roe is overturned, statewide legislation would be immediately put into effect that re-criminalizes abortion, free of previous federal restriction.

Guttmacher's analysis also shows that least 26 states could immediately ban abortion, 22 of them being near absolute with at least a "trigger ban" or a ban that occurred prior to Roe passing in 1973, with Florida, Indiana, Montana and Nebraska following close behind, all with a history of bans or attempted bans. Many occur without regard to circumstances such as rape, incest and health complications.

However, certain states could be a potential safe haven for individuals, with California being a likely candidate. On April 25th, days before the leak, a story from CalMatters stated that “providers and Democratic lawmakers are all getting ready for a potential influx of out-of-state women,” giving hope that even if states immediately criminalize, the individuals in need of a procedure will still have an opportunity for a safe and legal process.

In addition, if an individual is in a state where having an abortion is currently illegal, but travels to a neighboring state for a legal procedure, "Patients can travel out of state for an abortion with no legal repercussions for anyone involved. they can not be criminally charged in their home state," said Caroline Kitchener of the Washington Post in September 2021. While that is good news to many, it still leaves the potential for new legislation to pass that would criminalize those who seek out-of-state assistance.

Back in 2019, CNN published an article titled "The Supreme Court has overturned more than 200 of its own decisions. Here’s what it could mean for Roe v. Wade," in which the significant impact of overrule has already been discussed on a multitude of occasion. The possibility of Roe being overturned is familiar for many, and now with a confirmed leak, a very legitimate concern for a majority. By repealing Roe, SCOTUS is making a strong statement: the last 50 years of women's rights was not constitutional and was wrongly decided in 1973.

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