Possible Outcomes of Mail-in Ballots
By: Daniel Velasquez
It is possible that Trump can appear to win by a landslide on Election Day and ultimately lose due to mail-in ballots. Hawkfish’s study shows that Trump could hold a projected lead of 408-108 electoral votes on election night and ultimately be flipped into Biden win 334-204, once all mail-in ballots are counted. COVID-19 will be a huge factor in this scenario playing out as Democrats are more likely to vote by mail-in ballots than Republicans due to the fear of the virus. Getting the results of the 2020 presidential election can take days, maybe up to weeks.
The New York City primaries were proof of how mail-in ballots could be a disaster, as it took them over six weeks to get the results of two congressional races and 1-in-5 ballots were disqualified due to errors or late submissions and thousands more never arrived to voter’s homes.The New York results were ravaging even though it is a well funded state.
Trump has been adamantly claiming mail-in ballots will a way for Democrats to steal the presidential election, although there is no credible data to back that claim. In fact, research by the Brennan Center of Justice found that in 2016 there was no evidence of widespread voter fraud. Yet Trump continues to spread misinformation and some of his supporters parrot his rhetoric.
The scenario presented by Hawkfish is completely plausible. Hillary Clinton has already come out and said Biden should not concede under any circumstances as the election’s results will drag out. On the other side, Trump is claiming, if he loses it will be because the election is rigged. If it plays out and there is a drastic flip in favor of Biden once all mail-in ballots are counted, Trump will start to spew his toxic rhetoric. Rather than being logical and taking into consideration that mail-in ballots might take a while to count, many will jump onto the conspiracy theory Trump has been spreading for months. There is already a lot of tension built up amongst Democrats and Republicans. What if Republicans or Democrats try to have specific county’s ballots legally thrown out on the basis that they did not follow rules? For example, the ruling by the state Supreme Court of Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state, which orders officials to toss out naked ballots. It could lead to either side’s supporters taking the streets in anger, protesting the results of the election.
It is important for Biden supporters to not be startled by the results on Election Day, but to be patient and allow for the mail-in ballots time to be counted. Also, Trump supporters need to be prepared if the results swing in favor of Biden. They must consider the fact it might take time to count mail-in ballots, rather than claiming the election is rigged as many states are not equipped to process mail-in ballots quickly.